Monsoon 2024: Extended Rainfall Till September, Impact on Crop Harvesting Expected

Key Highlights

• Monsoon rains extended through September, delaying harvest.
• Low-pressure area developing, increasing rain chances.
• Paddy, cotton, and soybean crops are at risk of damage.
• Rabi crops like wheat may benefit from moisture.
• Cyclonic storm "Asna" developing near Kutch and Pakistan coast.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an extended monsoon season in 2024, with rains expected to continue through September. While the ongoing monsoon has brought hope to farmers with a promising Kharif crop season, this prolonged rainfall could also have significant impacts on harvesting activities.

IMD's September Rain Forecast

The IMD has indicated that a low-pressure area is developing in September, which may prolong the rainy season. This could have a direct impact on the harvesting of key Kharif crops like paddy, cotton, maize, pulses, and soybeans, which are typically harvested around mid-September. While moisture is beneficial for Rabi crops like wheat and gram, prolonged rains may delay harvests and lead to potential crop damage, ultimately affecting market prices.

How Long Will the Rain Continue in September?

According to IMD officials, rainfall could persist until the end of September due to the development of a low-pressure area around the third week of the month. Prolonged rains during this period may negatively affect the paddy crop in particular, leading to concerns about harvesting.

Monsoon Delayed in 2024

Typically, the monsoon begins to retreat from India around September 17, starting from the northwestern regions and exiting the country by October. However, due to the possible development of La Niña conditions, the withdrawal of the monsoon might be delayed this year. A similar pattern has been observed in previous years when La Niña conditions emerged, delaying the retreat of the monsoon.

Monsoon 2024 Rainfall So Far

Since the onset of the monsoon on June 1, India has received 7% more rainfall than the average for this period. Some states have even seen a 66% increase in rainfall, leading to floods in certain areas.

Cyclonic Storm Possibility

The IMD has also reported the development of a deep depression over the Kutch and Saurashtra regions, as well as the northeast Arabian Sea and the coastlines of Pakistan. This depression is expected to evolve into a cyclonic storm named "Asna," potentially impacting the northeastern Arabian Sea and adjacent coastal regions.

Rainfall Prediction for the Next 24 Hours

According to Skymet Weather, the following regions are likely to receive light to moderate rain, with some areas expecting heavy showers:

• Heavy Rain: South Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, South Odisha, Telangana, Vidarbha, South Chhattisgarh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, parts of Madhya Pradesh.
• Moderate Rain: Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan, Gujarat, Marathwada, Konkan, Goa, interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Northeast India.
• Light Rain: Sikkim, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, West Rajasthan, Madhya Maharashtra.

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CMV360 Says

The extended monsoon season is both a blessing and a challenge for Indian farmers in 2024. While the rains have improved prospects for a good Kharif harvest, their prolonged presence may disrupt the timely harvesting of crops, impacting both yields and prices. Farmers and market watchers will need to stay alert to these changing weather conditions in the coming weeks.