Meteorological Department's Forecast Released: Anticipating Above Normal Rainfall in 2024

Key Highlights

• IMD predicts above-normal rainfall for the 2024 monsoon.
• Beneficial for agriculture, with heightened precipitation expected.
• Slow onset in June-July, compensatory acceleration in August-September.
• Varied rainfall patterns across states: above-normal, normal, and below-normal.
• Alignment with the Skymet Weather forecast suggests consensus on the monsoon outlook.
• Water management challenges are anticipated in regions with below-normal rainfall.
• Overall, positive implications for crop cultivation and water resources management.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has unveiled its much-anticipated predictions for this year's monsoon season, painting a picture of wetter conditions than usual across the nation. Following in the footsteps of the private weather agency Skymet Weather, the IMD's forecast suggests an above-normal rainfall pattern from June to September, bringing potential suggestions for various sectors of the economy.

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What does the forecast say?

According to the Meteorological Department, rainfall between 104 to 110 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) is considered better than normal. For 2024, the IMD predicts a 106 percent rainfall, equivalent to around 87 centimeters across the country. This announcement comes as welcome news, particularly for the agricultural sector, which heavily relies on timely and adequate rainfall for successful crop cultivation.

When does the monsoon arrive?

Typically, the monsoon first reaches Kerala around June 1st, marking the onset of the rainy season. From there, it steadily progresses across the country, providing relief from the scorching summer heat. By the end of September, the monsoon retreats from Rajasthan, signaling the conclusion of the rainy period and paving the way for the transition to the post-monsoon season.

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Which states are likely to receive above-normal rainfall?

The Meteorological Department's forecast identifies more than 20 states, including Delhi, Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and others, as potential recipients of above-normal rainfall during the 2024 monsoon season. This heightened precipitation forecast brings hope for refilling the water reservoirs, supporting agricultural activities, and mitigating the risk of water scarcity in these regions.

What about states with normal and below-normal rainfall?

Conversely, states such as Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu-Kashmir, and Ladakh are expected to experience normal rainfall levels, according to the IMD's projections. However, some states, including Odisha, Nagaland, Assam, Mizoram, Manipur, and Tripura, may face below-normal rainfall, underscoring the need for prudent water management strategies and contingency plans to address potential agricultural challenges in these areas.

What's next?

With the onset of monsoon expected to be gradual due to weather influences, the IMD advises vigilance during the initial phases of the season, particularly in June and July, when rainfall progression may be slower. However, the forecast suggests a compensatory acceleration in rainfall activity during the latter part of the season, from August to September, offering reassurance for agricultural planning and water resource management.

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Implications for agriculture

The forecast's implications for agriculture are significant, as the monsoon plays a pivotal role in shaping crop yields and agricultural output across the country. With above-normal rainfall predicted in several key agricultural regions, farmers can anticipate favorable conditions for Kharif crop cultivation, with the timely onset of rains in June-July likely to facilitate sowing activities and support crop growth and development.

Comparison with other forecasts

The alignment between the IMD's forecast of above-normal rainfall and Skymet Weather's prediction of a normal monsoon for 2024 underscores a degree of consent regarding the anticipated weather patterns for the upcoming season. Both forecasts provide valuable insights for the stakeholders across various sectors, enabling informed decision-making and proactive measures to harness the potential benefits of the monsoon season.

Understanding rainfall categories

The categorization of rainfall based on the percentage of the Long Period Average (LPA) serves as a useful metric for assessing monsoon conditions and their implications. While rainfall below 90 percent of the LPA is considered deficient, levels between 90 to 96 percent are categorized as below normal, 96 to 104 percent as normal, and 104 to 110 percent as above normal. Exceeding 110 percent constitutes excess rainfall, highlighting the diverse range of precipitation scenarios and their respective impacts on different regions and sectors.

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CMV360 Says

The Meteorological Department's forecast for the 2024 monsoon season offers valuable insights into the expected weather patterns and their implications for various sectors, particularly agriculture. With above-normal rainfall predicted in several states, stakeholders are encouraged to prepare for potential opportunities and challenges associated with the forthcoming rainy season.