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Monsoon 2024 brings extended rains till September, potentially affecting Kharif crop harvesting and leading to market disruptions.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an extended monsoon season in 2024, with rains expected to continue through September. While the ongoing monsoon has brought hope to farmers with a promising Kharif crop season, this prolonged rainfall could also have significant impacts on harvesting activities.
The IMD has indicated that a low-pressure area is developing in September, which may prolong the rainy season. This could have a direct impact on the harvesting of key Kharif crops like paddy, cotton, maize, pulses, and soybeans, which are typically harvested around mid-September. While moisture is beneficial for Rabi crops like wheat and gram, prolonged rains may delay harvests and lead to potential crop damage, ultimately affecting market prices.
According to IMD officials, rainfall could persist until the end of September due to the development of a low-pressure area around the third week of the month. Prolonged rains during this period may negatively affect the paddy crop in particular, leading to concerns about harvesting.
Typically, the monsoon begins to retreat from India around September 17, starting from the northwestern regions and exiting the country by October. However, due to the possible development of La Niña conditions, the withdrawal of the monsoon might be delayed this year. A similar pattern has been observed in previous years when La Niña conditions emerged, delaying the retreat of the monsoon.
Since the onset of the monsoon on June 1, India has received 7% more rainfall than the average for this period. Some states have even seen a 66% increase in rainfall, leading to floods in certain areas.
The IMD has also reported the development of a deep depression over the Kutch and Saurashtra regions, as well as the northeast Arabian Sea and the coastlines of Pakistan. This depression is expected to evolve into a cyclonic storm named "Asna," potentially impacting the northeastern Arabian Sea and adjacent coastal regions.
According to Skymet Weather, the following regions are likely to receive light to moderate rain, with some areas expecting heavy showers:
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The extended monsoon season is both a blessing and a challenge for Indian farmers in 2024. While the rains have improved prospects for a good Kharif harvest, their prolonged presence may disrupt the timely harvesting of crops, impacting both yields and prices. Farmers and market watchers will need to stay alert to these changing weather conditions in the coming weeks.