Wheat Price Forecast for 2025: What to Expect Across Major Indian States

Key Highlights

• Wheat prices in 2025 will fluctuate based on regional demand and supply.
• Madhya Pradesh may see prices between Rs 2700-2850 per quintal.
• Farmers expect better prices, especially for high-quality crops.
• Prices may fall initially after harvest, then rise to Rs 3000-3200 per quintal.
• Maharashtra has seen the highest price increase, reaching Rs 3766 per quintal.

The price of wheat has been fluctuating in recent months, and both farmers and traders are keenly observing the trends as we approach 2025. With the new harvest expected to hit markets soon, there is uncertainty about whether wheat prices will increase or fall. As the harvest season approaches, it is crucial to understand the expected price fluctuations and how they will affect wheat producers across India. This article delves into the price expectations for wheat in 2025 and how different states in India might see price variations based on various factors.

Also Read: Exploring the Top 10 Wheat Producing States in India 2024

Wheat Price Forecast for 2025: A Year of Mixed Expectations Across India

Wheat prices in India are influenced by several factors, including weather conditions, crop yields, government procurement policies, and international market demand. As of December 2024, wheat prices are already fluctuating, reflecting the balance between regional demand, supply, and seasonal factors. The new wheat harvest is expected to start arriving in markets in early 2025, which will further affect prices. Here’s what to expect for wheat prices across major wheat-producing states in India.

State-wise Wheat Price Expectations for 2025

The price of wheat varies greatly across India’s wheat-producing states. Factors like local supply and demand, crop quality, and regional market conditions all contribute to price fluctuations. Below is a breakdown of what farmers and traders can expect from wheat prices in different states in 2025.

1. Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh is one of India’s top wheat producers, and the state has seen stable wheat prices in recent months. In December 2024, the price of wheat in Madhya Pradesh was recorded at Rs 2826 per quintal. This price was almost unchanged from November, showing a slight drop of 0.07%, but it marked a significant 12% increase compared to December 2023.

The stability in prices is attributed to the balance between supply and demand within the state’s mandis, which ensures that prices remain steady even as the harvest season approaches. However, the forecast for 2025 suggests that prices could fluctuate due to an increase in market arrivals.

Farmers in Madhya Pradesh are optimistic for the coming year, especially due to favorable weather conditions that have improved the quality of the crop. Many farmers, particularly those in the Malwa and Nimar regions, expect prices to rise above Rs 3000 per quintal for high-quality wheat varieties. However, the overall price will be impacted by factors like government procurement policies and the amount of wheat harvested.

2. Bihar

Bihar has experienced a steady increase in wheat prices. In December 2024, the price of wheat in Bihar was Rs 2892 per quintal, an increase of 3.84% from the previous month and 13.1% higher compared to December 2023. This increase is mainly due to strong market demand and good-quality crop yields in the region.

In 2025, Bihar’s farmers can expect strong market prices, especially after the harvest. With a higher-than-usual yield expected, prices could continue to rise due to increasing domestic demand and limited stock. This price rise will be more prominent in the months following the harvest, as demand picks up during the peak consumption period.

3. Haryana

Haryana, traditionally a major wheat-producing state, saw a significant drop in wheat prices in December 2024. The price of wheat fell by 6.92% to Rs 2610 per quintal, but on a year-on-year basis, prices increased by 16%. This reflects the market's volatility and the changing dynamics of government procurement policies.

Despite the short-term decline, farmers in Haryana can expect a more stable market in 2025 as the harvest approaches. While the drop in government purchases may reduce stability in the short term, private traders are expected to increase their purchases, which could boost prices.

4. Gujarat and Rajasthan

In Gujarat, the price of wheat remained fairly stable in December 2024, with a slight decline of 1%. However, compared to the previous year, the price of wheat in Gujarat has risen by 9.04%. Similarly, in Rajasthan, wheat prices saw an annual increase of 12.88%, even though there was a small decline in the short term.

These states have seen strong demand for wheat, and farmers are expected to receive better prices in 2025 due to the quality of crops. Both Gujarat and Rajasthan are expected to see a positive trend in wheat prices as demand for high-quality wheat increases.

5. Maharashtra

Maharashtra has seen the highest increase in wheat prices in recent months. As of December 2024, wheat prices in Maharashtra reached Rs 3766 per quintal, a sharp increase of 26.59% compared to December 2023. This rise in prices is attributed to increased demand and higher-quality crops being harvested in the region.

In 2025, wheat prices in Maharashtra are expected to remain strong, with farmers likely to benefit from higher prices. The state’s exceptional crop quality and robust demand from both domestic and international markets suggest that prices will continue to rise.

6. Punjab

Punjab’s wheat market is showing a positive outlook for 2025. In December 2024, wheat prices reached Rs 2992 per quintal, a 28.82% increase from the previous month. This price rise is mainly due to a reduction in government procurement and an increase in private-sector purchases.

With demand expected to rise after the harvest, Punjab’s farmers can expect to receive higher prices for their wheat in 2025. This increase in private purchases could lead to more competitive prices in the market.

Overall Wheat Price Forecast for 2025

As we approach 2025, wheat prices are expected to fluctuate due to several factors, including supply and demand dynamics, government policies, and international market trends. In the early months of 2025, wheat prices are likely to fall initially due to the increased supply from the new harvest. During the months of February and March, prices in states like Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar could remain between Rs 2600 to Rs 2900 per quintal. However, by mid-2025, wheat prices are expected to rise due to higher demand and a possible increase in exports.

Premium wheat rates, especially for high-quality crops, are likely to be seen in states like Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. As the global demand for wheat increases, Indian farmers could benefit from higher export opportunities, further boosting prices.

How Can Farmers Maximize Their Earnings in 2025?

To secure better prices for wheat, farmers need to stay informed about market trends and government policies. They should monitor the MSP (Minimum Support Price) and government procurement strategies, as these can provide price stability. Additionally, farmers should time their sales carefully, considering the fluctuations in supply and demand, and also avoid selling immediately after the harvest when prices may be lower.

Improved infrastructure, including better mandi management and transportation facilities, can also reduce the costs for farmers, allowing them to earn higher profits.

Current Wheat Prices in Major Wheat-Producing States

Here is a table of the current wheat prices in various states of India:

Also Read: Kisan Diwas 2024: Honoring Farmers and Promoting Sustainable Agriculture

CMV360 Says

The wheat market in 2025 holds promise for farmers across India. While prices may experience some fluctuations due to the increased supply following the new harvest, there is an overall positive outlook for wheat prices. States like Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Maharashtra, and Gujarat are expected to see higher prices, particularly for quality wheat. Farmers who stay informed and time their sales strategically will likely see better returns in 2025.

With favorable weather conditions, increased private-sector demand, and an expected rise in wheat exports, the wheat market in 2025 is set to be a prosperous year for many Indian wheat farmers.